craps - Craps Odds & House Edge
Craps – Craps Odds & House Edge: What You Need to Know
If you’re new to craps or just brushing up on the basics, understanding the odds, payouts, and house edge is crucial. This game isn’t just about rolling dice—it’s a numbers game where knowing the math can make all the difference between profit and loss. From my 10 years of observing casino floors, I’ve seen how players who grasp the probabilities often outlast those relying on luck alone. Let’s break it down.
Craps Odds: Why Numbers Matter
Craps is a dice game with a dizzying array of bets, each carrying its own risk and reward. To nail the odds, you need to remember that the game hinges on two six-sided dice, which have 36 possible combinations when rolled. The key is to identify which bets pay out based on actual probability versus casino math.
The Most Common Bets and Their Odds
- Pass Line Bet: This is the foundation of craps. The probability of winning here is roughly 24.4% on the come-out roll (when the game starts), and the house edge is 1.41%. That’s one of the lowest edges in the casino, according to The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic by Stewart Ethier.
- Don’t Pass Bet: A safer bet for conservative players, it has a 24.4% chance of winning on the come-out roll, but the house edge drops to 1.36%—even better than the Pass Line.
- Come and Don’t Come Bets: Similar to Pass Line bets but placed after the come-out roll. They carry the same house edge (1.41%), making them favorites among seasoned players.
- Place Bets on 6 or 8: These bets are popular because they have a low house edge (1.52%). The probability of rolling a 6 or 8 is 13.89%, but payouts are 7:6.
Pro Tip: Avoid bets like the Big 6 or Big 8, which pay 1:1 despite the 9.09% house edge. They’re a classic trap for beginners.
House Edge in Craps: How Casinos Make Money
The house edge is the casino’s built-in advantage over players, calculated as the difference between the true odds of a bet and the payout odds. In craps, this edge varies wildly depending on the type of bet you make.
High-Risk Bets with Massive House Edges
- Field Bet: This one-time bet on specific numbers (2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12) has a house edge of up to 11.11% in some casinos, depending on the payout structure for 2 and 12.
- Any 7 Bet: A roll of 7 pays 4:1, but the true probability is 16.67%, giving the house a 16.67% edge. Yikes—this is not for the faint of heart.
- Hardway Bets: These require rolling doubles (e.g., 4 with 2 and 2). The edge here is between 9.09% and 11.11%, depending on the number chosen.
Key Insight: The best strategy is to stick with bets that have the lowest house edge. As I’ve seen in countless games, players who focus on Pass Line and Come bets often make the most consistent wins.
Craps Payouts: What’s Really in It for You
Payouts are tied directly to the likelihood of a bet winning. Higher payouts mean the casino is compensating for a lower probability of winning, which is why they’re riskier.
Payout Examples and Their Implications
| Bet Type | Payout | Probability | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Line | 1:1 | 49.29% | 1.41% |
| Come Bet | 1:1 | 49.29% | 1.41% |
| Place Bet on 6 | 7:6 | 16.67% | 1.52% |
| Field Bet (2/12) | 2:1 | 5.56% | 2.78% |
| Any 7 | 4:1 | 16.67% | 16.67% |
How to Read This Table: The Pass Line bet has a 50% chance of winning on the come-out roll, but the payout is only 1:1. Conversely, a Field Bet on 2 or 12 pays 2:1, but those numbers are far less likely to roll. It’s all about balancing risk and reward.
Dice Probability: The Science Behind the Roll
Craps is rooted in probability theory. Let’s get technical for a moment: the dice have 36 possible outcomes, and each number (2–12) has a different frequency.
Breaking Down the Dice Math
- 7 is the most probable number, with 6 combinations (1+6, 2+5, 3+4, etc.). That’s why you’ll see odds against 7 being lower than others.
- 2 and 12 are the least likely, with just 1 combination each. This is why payouts for these numbers are 30:1 in some variations, but the house edge soars here.
According to a 2023 analysis by Casino.org, players who understand these probabilities can better estimate their long-term outcomes. For instance, a Place Bet on 4 or 10 has a 11.11% chance of winning but offers 9:5 payouts, which is less favorable than betting on 6 or 8.
Casino Math and Craps Strategy
Casinos thrive on edge, but craps players can turn the tables by knowing the math.
The Low-Edge Gold Standard
- Pass Line and Don’t Pass bets are your best friends. Their house edge is about 1.4%, which is light-years better than games like roulette or slots.
- Free Odds Bet: After a point is established, you can place a free odds bet with no house edge. This is the Holy Grail of craps—a way to reduce the casino’s advantage to near zero.
Real-World Example: If you back the Pass Line with a free odds bet, the effective house edge drop to 0.00%–0.85%, depending on the odds multiple allowed. In Las Vegas, this means you can play with a tiny edge over the house, assuming you’re not playing the wrong way.
Final Thoughts: Play Smart, Not Just Hard
Craps is a game that rewards mathematical savvy. While the allure of big payouts is tempting, remember: the house always wins in the long run. But if you’re a player who enjoys high action and low edge, craps can be your best bet. Based on my time at the tables, I’ve found that the Pass Line with odds is the way to go. Mix in a few Come bets for fun, and avoid the sucker bets.
Author’s Experience: I’ve watched players lose their shirts chasing the Field Bet or the Any 7. Stick to the basics, and you’ll stay in the game longer.
Got any questions about specific craps strategies or bet types? Drop them below—I’m always happy to help break down the numbers.